城市新区环境规划的 “响应-调控”模型研究被北京大学学报接受

城市新区环境规划的 “响应-调控”模型研究
都小尚,阳平坚,盛虎,刘慧,郭怀成,刘永,于鲁冀

摘要:针对城市新区社会经济环境系统所具有的整体性、不确定性、综合性和动态性特点,本研究构建了不确定性的新区社会经济环境系统“响应-调控”模型,包括4个关键步骤:①系统动态响应模拟;②情景分析与评价;③优化调控模型构建;④决策偏好与优化调控方案生成;设计3个子情景来比较分析不同新区发展模式下的环境压力,包括经济结构调整型发展情景(I)、资源环境约束型发展情景(II)、资源环境协调型发展情景(III)。以郑州新区为例开展实证研究,结合情景分析和决策者偏好,对新区规划实施所产生的社会经济发展及环境压力响应进行模拟预测。模型结果显示,新区COD排放量将由2008年的19693t/a提高到2020年的33806t/a;在未来偏好现代装备制造业和高新技术产业的情景下,相同环境容量条件下能产生更高的工业总产值,相同工业产值条件下可减少污染物的排放和水资源的消耗。
关键词:社会经济环境系统;情景;优化;决策偏好;郑州新区

 
An Integrated Simulation and Optimization Modeling Approach for Environmental Planning in New Urban Areas
 
Abstract: The planning and construction of new urban areas is an important way to further improve the level of urbanization and socio-economic development in China. In order to effectively alleviate the contradictions of the urban socio-economic development and resources and environment, reduce pollution at the source, and decrease the environmental risks, it is necessary to carry out preventive study in the new urban areas. In this paper, based on the holistic, integrated and dynamic characteristics of new urban areas, we used the uncertainty-based scenario optimization method, combined with the preferential decision-making of the industrial development, to stimulate the areas’ socio-economic and environmental system. Four steps were involved in the proposed modeling framework, including (a) systematic response modeling; (b) scenarios analysis and evaluation; (c) optimal model development; and (d) final decision schemes determination. Three scenarios were designed according to the socio-economic development, emissions of major pollutants and the main constraint resources consumption. A case study in Zhengzhou New District, Henan Province was carried out in this paper and optimized socio-economic development scheme was proposed. The model results showed that the COD discharge will increase from 1963 t/a in 2008 to 33806t/a in 2020.
Key words: Social economy and environment system; Scenario; Optimization; Preferential decision-making; Zhengzhou New District